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President Volodymyr Zelensky unexpectedly initiated changes in the power vertical. He intends to replace the current Prime Minister, Yuliya Svyrydenko, which in turn will lead to a complete government resignation. For what purpose is he doing this, why now, what new faces will Ukrainians see in the new government headed by a new prime minister – these and other questions were posed by Korotko Pro journalist to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
Prime Minister Svyrydenko had a strained relationship with the parliament
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko Photo: kanaldim.tv
– Why is such a comprehensive reboot of power needed right now?
– Right now is a certain coincidence of circumstances. According to some indirect signs, Zelensky planned cardinal changes, and not only governmental ones. This time, diplomatic reshuffles were planned first, and on Saturday, July 11, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was preparing for a series of diplomatic changes. He decided that the issue arose precisely about changing the ambassador to the USA and sending Yuliya Svyrydenko there.
And only after that did the president decide that comprehensive changes were needed. After all, Zelensky often combines them into one package. But a certain trigger, an impulse for these personnel changes in a somewhat accelerated manner, was the need to replace the ambassador to the USA. Various sources report that even before the NATO summit, Stefanishyna informed the president that she wanted to resign for personal reasons and needed to be replaced.
Therefore, Zelensky probably had the idea to send Svyrydenko to the United States. A person who has good personal relations with American high-ranking officials, including US Treasury Secretary Besant, who understands which projects need to be promoted in the US. This includes the drone deal, obtaining a licensing agreement for anti-missiles for Patriots, and investment projects. Svyrydenko will be involved in these matters.
– Since the American track is extremely important for Kyiv, does the appointment of Svyrydenko as ambassador mean that she remains in the power structure?
– Yes, undoubtedly, she remains in the president’s team, but in the position of ambassador to the USA.
– And in general, were there any specific claims against Svyrydenko, or is this more of a plan for power rotation in response to new challenges?
– It’s not that Zelensky had claims against Svyrydenko; he still has a good opinion of her. But he felt that there was a problem in Svyrydenko’s relationship with the parliament. And this hinders the promotion of government bills, so Zelensky felt that a new person was needed in this position to improve relations with the Verkhovna Rada.
Moreover, many perceived Svyrydenko as Yermak’s person. This was indeed the case before, but recently she no longer acted as Yermak’s person, and it is said that even Yermak himself crossed her out of his notebook. This is not the main reason for the resignation, but within the framework of the image renewal process that Zelensky is demonstrating, it was in principle necessary.
Yuliya Svyrydenko was called Yermak’s person. Photo: ANDRII NESTERENKO / AFP via Getty Images
Koretsky is liked by Zelensky as a technocrat, an effective manager, and a person not associated with any political group
– Why is the Office of the President betting on the head of Naftogaz, Serhiy Koretsky, as the future prime minister? Why was the choice made for a technocrat from the energy sector?
– Well, I want to remind you that Koretsky is far from the only candidate. Zelensky conducted a casting and spoke with Shmyhal, Fedorov, and Klymenko, in addition to Koretsky. I will also draw attention to the fact that, according to my information and some signs, the candidacy of Terekhov is actively being lobbied.
But why is Koretsky considered candidate No. 1? President Zelensky highly values his work in the energy sector. Koretsky has a reputation as a very good manager; he is liked by Zelensky as a modern person, a technocrat, an effective manager, a person who is not associated with any political group, with any oligarchic group.
On the contrary, when he headed Ukrnafta, and then Naftogaz of Ukraine, he faced campaigns against him from Kolomoisky’s media. But he endured it all. And it is precisely his apolitical nature and good reputation that greatly appeal to Zelensky. He will symbolize the continuation of the power renewal. A prime minister will appear who is well-known and respected in the West. This combination of qualities explains why he is the most likely candidate for the position of prime minister.
With other candidates, it’s more complicated. Shmyhal does not provide a renewal effect. Certain tension has formed around Fedorov, a certain conflict of interest in the arms market. It is said that Fedorov has tense relations with Syrskyi, and there is alleged criticism from some “Servant of the People” deputies.
Regarding Terekhov, I tend to believe that he lacks experience working at the national level. A more likely scenario is that he will be appointed Deputy Prime Minister for Infrastructure, who will also oversee work on infrastructure development and ensure normal operation in frontline regions.
– You said that Terekhov is being lobbied; by whom?
– I don’t know exactly who. I am only saying that there are signs that someone from the president’s circle is promoting this particular candidacy. And Terekhov himself also pleases Zelensky. He does a very good job in Kharkiv. Zelensky likes people who demonstrate results-oriented, effective work, and he values such personnel. Especially in the current conditions, in conditions of war.
Serhiy Koretsky leads the presidential casting for the prime minister position. Photo: Volodymyr Zelensky’s social media
The president wants Europe, not us, to make concessions to Ukraine
– Previously, the Bankova actively promoted the idea of reducing the number of ministries to save budget funds and avoid bureaucracy. Why are they being reformed again now – because the idea of super-ministries has failed?
– No, this is an old story. I can remind you that from Kuchma’s time to Poroshenko’s, ministries were alternately merged and separated. This happened under every president. So it will be a restructuring now. The president announced that a new political strategy is needed.
Therefore, I don’t think there will be any significant changes in the direction of foreign and domestic policy. There will likely be an emphasis on certain priorities. For example, domestic policy and frontline regions currently require special attention.
– Oleksiy Kuleba’s department – the Ministry of Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine – is planned to be split again into two classic areas: regional policy and transport infrastructure. Why?
– I think someone is vying for a separate ministerial position.
– People’s Deputy Bezhin?
– Possibly. He is involved in regional policy, by the way. I wouldn’t say he is that influential, but perhaps the head of the presidential faction, Arakhamia, is promoting him. But much more importantly, Terekhov will most likely become the Deputy Prime Minister overseeing both regional policy, infrastructure, and frontline regions. That is important, not the division of the ministry.
– Regarding another name, Minister of Education Lisovyi: is his resignation the result of shortcomings in his work or some political subtext?
– No. Here, conflicts within and around the ministry are likely involved. Rumors about Lisovyi have been circulating for at least a couple of years. He has been fired informationally several times, but politically it has not been confirmed. Let’s see how it goes now. Someone is lobbying for Lisovyi’s dismissal, while someone else is defending him. We will see what Zelensky’s decision will be.
I would draw attention to something else. One of the priorities is changes in foreign policy. And it is very likely that we will have a new Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration. President Zelensky is not very satisfied that all six clusters have not been opened.
The current Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Taras Kachka, is undoubtedly a professional, but he lobbies more for European requirements that must be met in Ukraine than he lobbies for Ukraine’s position in Brussels. And the president wants Europe to make concessions to us, not for us to make concessions to Europeans in the process of European integration. Therefore, it is very likely that we may have a new Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration.
There is intrigue surrounding Fedorov
– Besides these individuals, are there specific claims against any other ministers?
– There is intrigue surrounding Fedorov as the Minister of Defense. As I understand it, some forces are lobbying for his replacement. This is related to the fierce competition in the arms market and some of Fedorov’s reformist steps. And therefore, there are people who want him to be moved, transferred to some other position. I don’t know if this will happen, but it is clearly being considered.
It is said that the current Minister of Internal Affairs, Klymenko, could become both a new Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense. I don’t think this is the right decision. Changing the Minister of Defense every six months is such a fever. And this hustle will not contribute to the effectiveness of the Ministry of Defense’s work. Therefore, I am skeptical about this, but it seems there is a problem here.
There are also claims regarding the Ministry of Veterans. It is not ruled out that a new minister may appear. So far, this is a less likely scenario, but according to various estimates, up to half of the new Cabinet members may appear. In particular, due to the division of some ministries.
– Regarding Fedorov’s resignation. President Zelensky cannot fail to understand: if he dismisses him, he will be one of his main rivals in the presidential elections. Fedorov’s ratings are quite high and continue to grow…
– In fact, he is important in another sense. It is Fedorov who is the informal head of the headquarters responsible for preparing for future elections. Some PR specialists, those involved in social networks and communication, are said to be associated with him. Fedorov himself is either the curator, or his people are curators of this program. And overall, he is very loyal to President Zelensky. And most likely, he will lead the party list in possible parliamentary elections.
And even if he leaves the Ministry of Defense, he will still remain in the president’s team. For example, he could become a Deputy Prime Minister with powers to promote defense projects, interact with the West, and so on.
There should be no problems with the approval of the new government in parliament
– Is there currently a stable mono-majority in the Verkhovna Rada for the swift approval of a new prime minister and the entire package of ministers, or will there be protracted negotiations?
– According to sources, there will likely be no problems with the approval of Koretsky as prime minister. He is a non-confrontational person, and the fact that President Zelensky will nominate him will be supported by the majority of “servants” and part of the opposition. This is the optimal option from the perspective of Koretsky’s non-confrontational and apolitical nature.
However, with the composition of the government, it will be more problematic. Again, when Fedorov is approved as Minister of Defense, this may also cause certain problems. Although I recall that when he was appointed to this position in the winter, he received support from the majority of “Servant of the People” factions and part of the opposition. Therefore, regarding Fedorov, according to parliamentary sources, there may be certain problems. And this will undoubtedly be a test for the faction leader Arakhamia, as he is the one who must ensure a successful vote. There are also certain risks with voting for the Cabinet list. But to avoid a government crisis, I think they will do everything possible to get it voted through.
– What are the main risks of this personnel overhaul, given that a difficult winter lies ahead?
– I don’t see major risks. Key government officials, the most effective, the most influential – they will remain. I think Shmyhal will stay, and Fedorov too. And Koretsky himself has long been involved in preparations for winter, and he will continue this as prime minister. Therefore, I do not think this will lead to problems in preparing for winter. And if Terekhov comes, he will need to gain some experience working in the government, but he knows what to do. His task will be to scale up the correct things done in Kharkiv to the entire country, especially in frontline regions. Therefore, I do not expect any major problems here. On the contrary, it seems that Zelensky wants to make these changes precisely to increase the government’s effectiveness in preparing for winter, and considering the new stage of the war.